Canadian immigration will be guided by Canada’s ability to defeat COVID-19 and whether a federal election is called.

Two major issues will shape the way forward for Canadian immigration for the balance of 2021 :

• Canada’s ability to contain and ultimately defeat the coronavirus pandemic and
• Whether Prime Minister Justin Trudeau decides to call an election by the fall

COVID-19 in Canada

Canadian immigration policy has been disrupted by COVID-19 since March 2020. Every single policy decision that is being made is influenced by the immigration department’s ability to navigate COVID-related disruptions. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has introduced a very high number of policy changes and new programs as it aims to achieve the country’s immigration goals to the best of its ability amid the ongoing pandemic situation.

The past few months saw a worrisome increase in COVID-19 cases across Canada. The third wave of the virus has resulted in new lockdowns in Canada’s two largest provinces, Ontario and Quebec, and the fourth largest province, Alberta.

Fortunately, things have improved in recent weeks. New COVID-19 cases are now trending downward nationally after Canada hit over 10,000 daily cases during some parts of April. This is a function of stricter public health measures and Canada’s vaccination campaign beginning to hit stride. Canada has now received over 20 million vaccine doses. Over 40 percent of the eligible Canadian population has received at least one shot which means Canada ranks among the top five OECD countries.

Canada expects to receive over 20 million more doses by the end of June, and numerous federal and provincial political leaders have stated they hope the country will be able to return to some form of normalcy this summer. The ability for Canada to return to more normalcy would significantly change the Canadian government’s immigration calculus. Namely, the public health and safety arms of the federal government and IRCC could then give stronger consideration to welcoming more foreign nationals from overseas.

What next?

Canada’s ability to alleviate travel restrictions and allow more Confirmation of Permanent Residence (COPR) holders will depend on the success of its vaccine campaign in the coming months. IRCC has said little on COPRs. These are individuals overseas who have received permanent residence approval, but who are unable to enter Canada for now unless they fall under an exemption. They will not be required to restart their application process and Canada looks forward to welcoming them once the pandemic situation improves or is under control.

The first major sign of Canada’s willingness to lift restrictions will be what it and the U.S. choose to do with respect to their own border restrictions. The U.S. is ahead of Canada in its reopening but if Canada is able to soon catch up, it is possible more travel between the two countries will be allowed by the summer. Should this happen, Canada would then probably begin considering the fact that it can look ay lifting restrictions for travellers coming from other countries as well.